A change in gender, not policy, likely in Mexico

Mexico is set to elect a new president, all seats in Congress (128 senate and 500 lower house) and nine state governors on June 2. But the focus is on the presidential election, now a two-horse race between former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum of the left-wing, ruling Morena party and senator Xochitl Galvez of the conservative National Action Party (PAN). That means the country is poised to elect its first female president, but their stances are quite different.

Sheinbaum—the ruling coalition candidate chosen to succeed Morena founder, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador–holds a commanding lead in the polls. She has a doctorate in environmental engineering and served as Head of Government of Mexico City from 2018 to 2023. While she has remained loyal to Lopez Obrador, it’s unlikely she will continue all his policies. She has, for example, voiced concern about the energy sector, arguing Mexico cannot rely on fossil fuels and that the private sector must be more involved—a 180-degree shift from Lopez Obrador’s rhetoric.

Galvez has a degree in computer engineering, a background in consulting and experience in nonprofits, establishing a foundation to fight childhood malnutrition. She was the head of Mexico's National Institute of Indigenous People under National Action Party President Vicente Fox (2000-06) and won a senate seat in 2018. 

Sheinbaum is leading in the polls and favored to win. If she does, we expect her administration to maintain most current policies. But her popularity is not as high as Lopez Obrador’s. So, we anticipate an uptick in social spending and higher deficits as she attempts to boost her approval. Furthermore, her party lacks a supermajority, so we do not expect the passing of any major reforms.